Business Travel Braces for Impact as Geopolitical Storm Clouds Over Europe

The global business travel industry is entering a “high-alert” phase as 2026 progresses. According to the latest sentiment poll from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the era of unbridled recovery is over. More than 500 professionals across the industry were surveyed, and what emerges is not a collapse, but something arguably more awkward: a system continuing out of habit while losing confidence in itself. Organizations are still flying, but with a degree of caution and operational complexity not seen since the height of the pandemic.

While North America remains cautiously positive, Europe has officially tipped into pessimism. For the first time in years, industry experts expressing a negative outlook (38%) now outweigh those who remain optimistic (21%).

In January, the industry was focused on “leverage” and “optimizing” budgets. By April, the focus shifted entirely to survival and safety. Nearly 80% of global respondents—and a staggering 92% in Europe—now identify geopolitical conflict as the dominant risk for the year.

The tension involving Iran and the wider Middle East is no longer a distant concern. It is actively reshaping flight paths, forcing itinerary changes, and suspending travel to specific regional hubs. For 76% of corporate buyers, “Duty of Care”—the legal and moral obligation to keep employees safe—is now the primary filter for every travel decision.

In a bid to navigate this high-friction environment, more than half of global businesses have scrapped their Q2 and Q3 event strategies. The trend is most pronounced in Europe, where 33% of buyers are aggressively shifting in-person meetings back to virtual platforms such as Zoom or Teams to avoid travel disruptions.

The cracks are most visible in meetings and events:

The value of the handshake hasn’t disappeared entirely. Travel managers report that sales meetings and major international trade shows remain the hardest activities to replace digitally. Even amid rising fuel costs and safety alerts, the need to connect in person remains a core business driver—albeit a much more expensive and stressful one.

No modern report is complete without invoking artificial intelligence as the solution to everything short of bad weather. As complexity grows, travel managers are turning to technology to keep their heads above water. 41% of organizations are now proactively using AI to forecast travel spending and manage crisis responses in real-time. 28% are already using it through existing tools. AI promises:

What it does not promise is cheaper flights, fewer conflicts, or less chaos. But it sounds impressive in a paragraph, which is what matters.

One of the more entertaining parts of the report is the sudden elevation of the travel manager into something close to a geopolitical risk analyst.

In plain English: someone who used to book flights is now expected to navigate global instability. Good luck with that.